Lately, Eli-Azar made it to Turkey. What gives this visit this importance is not the subjects allegedly due to be discussed. Its importance is rather due to the fact that the Israeli diplomacy is turning acting increasingly like a fire brigade.
In the last few month, the aim the majority of the missions of the Israeli diplomacy was to try to limit unpredicted crisis and problems increasingly emerging in the face of Israel all over the world.
Had it been the hasty trip to Moscow to limit the damages after the Russians discovered the role the Israeli intelligence and Drones in the preparation and in the course of the battles in Georgia, or had it been to repair the damages by 10 Dawning Street after the war on Gaza, or had it been the trip to the trip Madrid to try to do something about the Spanish anger vis-à-vis the Israeli interference in the European affairs, Eli-Azar visit to Ankara is just a similar hasty fire brigade task. The main common denominator of all those attempts was to patch up the holes caused by a tactless diplomacy.
Is it just the habitual reckless Israeli arrogance, or is it simply due to an unwise arbitrary approach of a new foreign Minister. This time it seems far more profoundly anchored in the stubborn perception dominating in the mind of the Israeli leadership.
Of course, in Bush’s bi-dimensional world, things were much simpler. White or black, either with us or against us, those were the slogans of the time. Subsequently, and “the good ones in the “West” and the bad ones on the Arab and Moslem side, were easily identifiable.
Israel, at the time, succeeded to widen the prevailing international political paradigm and discourse far beyond the international terrorism of al-Qaeda. It managed to tag with terrorism the majority of its overt enemies. It was then most comfortable to see the others doing the job she never dreamt of succeeding to. Then what happened?
The story began long before the departure or, may be, even the arrival of Bush. It began with obvious failure of the logic of force in remodeling the Middle East and the world suddenly discovering the limits of the force of the US.
It came with the emerging new powers playing their role in the reshaping the priorities of this multi-polar world. It came after the US is no more considering the constructive chaos in the Greater Middle East, as envisaged in some neo cones’ think tanks in Washington, neither a convenient nor a doable job. It came mainly after the US discovered the hard way, how central in the Arab Israeli conflict to minimize the animosity between the US from one side and where the future of its global leadership is to be decided: The Middle East and the Moslem World..
Briefly, the US is now much more concerned about its reestablishing its leadership in a new multi-polar world and control in the energy future concentrated in the Golf. Never the less, It is far less ready to engage directly in the region to solve problems the of favor of Israel. The US while disengaging from the direct presence on the land is going to the sea and may be, here and there, it will delegate some powers to do the dirty jobs.
On the other hand, the region itself is changing. While the Americans are trying to recuperate their regional role through new approaches and priorities, the raising powers in the region are profiting from the American retrenchment and feeling much more free to decide about their interests and their regional Geo-economics and Geopolitics. This is creating brand new dynamics and distribution of forces, alliances, and opportunities.
The region is changing, the world is changing, The US is changing, how turkey is not? And how long the Israeli leadership can keep a blind foresight.
Some on the right in Washington were exasperated to see those changes. They are blowing their horns pretending that Turkey's religiously oriented Justice and Development Party, the AKP, will distance the country from Israel, eroding secularism as it seeks tighter bonds within the Middle East.
Yes, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pushed some very sensitive Israeli buttons: He has dismissed concerns over Iran's nuclear program, for instance, and canceled a military exercise with Israel, holding one with Syria instead.
On the other side, the United States, after it had made things worse by worrying about all the wrong things, Erdogan's decisions do not augur the rise of an Islamist foreign policy in Turkey. After all, the more troubling reality is that they are the inevitable outcome of long-brewing global, regional, and domestic, trends.
In limiting cooperation with Israel and improving relations with neighbors like Iran and Syria, Erdogan is playing to a wide Turkish majority, would it be on the left or on the right or would it be Islamist.
He is addressing by these moves the popular dislike of Israel while cleverly pursuing Turkey's national interests. A good Turkish politician from any other party would do the same.
Understanding Erdogan's political calculus starts with understanding that, in Turkey, anger at the Israel is near universal. Where Islamists have seen Israel encouraging the neo-cons a global crusade against their faith, secular leftists see it as an agent of the most back warded forces of global capitalism. While many secular nationalist Turks think Israel is secretly working with the extreme right to overthrow the democratically elected government and to divide the country along ethnic lines.
According to a recent poll, 72 percent of people in Turkey believe foreign powers are working to break apart their country.
Turks themselves were never enthusiastic about their country's relationship with Israel. Now, in an increasingly democratic Turkey with more power centers when it comes to foreign affairs, every politician, cannot turn his back away from the main popular aspirations.
Again, the impatient Israeli reaction is just getting things worse. Attempting to play in the old game of divide and rule will just worsen their position as millions of anti-Israeli are surprisingly attentive to statements from Tel-Aviv.
Simply, the Israeli leadership is not getting it. It is still living in the illusion of the old global uni-polar model, the old Israeli-centered western mind about the region, as well as the nostalgia of Bush’s days.
Once upon a time many Arab leadership were missing many steps in their perception about the new trends in Arab Israeli conflict. Many are still. But now, more than ever, they have many Israeli leaders beside them.
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