By Marwan Kabalan
Last week, king Abdullah II of Jordan took many by surprise when he issued a royal edict, dissolving the parliament. Most analysts attributed the abrupt move by the king to end parliament's life in mid-term to domestic factors, i.e. the stand off between the government and MPs over reform bills.
The government of Prime Minister Nader al-Zahabi has repeatedly accused the parliament of blocking major economic reforms. Many deputies of the now dissolved parliament had accused the government, on the other hand, of favoring big businesses and foreign investors. It is said that the king has decided to end this stand off by dismissing the parliament and allowing the government to pass legislations under emergency laws. If this was the case, the king's decision would hence be contradicting the very logic of democracy, which specifies the main function of parliament as to monitor the policies of government and protect public interests. In addition, the Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Brotherhood, the main opposition group, held six seats only in the 120-seat parliament, making it no threat for the government. Having said that; the king decision does not make any sense if it was only taken to end a dispute between the government and not a very antagonistic parliament.
In fact, king Abdullah tends to rule by decrees in anticipation of crises. Before the US invasion of Iraq, for example, he dissolved the parliament and used his constitutional powers to appoint ministers and approve legislation in the absence of the legislative branch of government. Does the king foresee a crisis looming?
Just like any other monarch, king Abdullah's major concern must be the political future of his country. Clearly, this future does not look bright since the right wing government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came to power last April. The creation of an independent, territorially contiguous and viable Palestinian state along the June 4, 1967 borders in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is Jordan's key strategic goal. Realizing this goal is essential to ensure political stability and the survival of the Hashemite regime in a country where half the population is of Palestinian origin. The alternative is a Palestinian state in Jordan, an idea long promoted by the Jewish right – in power today.
For Jordan,as for every other arab countries, the two-state solution is a prerequisite for the full implementation of the Arab peace initiative, first launched in 2002 and repackaged in 2007. It allows 57 Arab and Muslim states to recognize Israel's right to exist in return for peace and security guarantees. So far, Israel has not accepted the initiative--although some Israeli officials have expressed willingness to negotiate the terms of the plan, a proposal rejected by the Arabs.
Reviving a genuine peace process is therefore of vital importance for Jordan, which lost dearly for banking on the success of peace initiatives promoted by former US President George W. Bush since 2000--starting with the roadmap and ending with the Annapolis conference in November 2007.
The policies of the Bush administration have done huge damage to Jordan's interests. They turned Iran into a big regional power and allowed Israel time to build more settlements and set up a separation wall snaking in and around the West Bank while discrediting the Palestinian Authority led by President Mahmoud Abbas.
Despite that Jordan remains wary of admitting in public that the peace process is dead for lack of a tenable alternative. For months now, king Abdullah has been calling upon president Obama to "shepherd" a real process leading to the creation of a Palestinian state. Obama has not been so far keen to heed the call. He failed to put sufficient pressure on Israel to freeze the building of settlements in the Occupied Territories. On the contrary, he bowed to the pressure of the powerful pro-Israel lobby in Washington and continued to nurture the impregnable American-Israeli alliance.
Right now, Jordan is bracing for the worse-case scenario: a worsening political, security and economic situation in the Palestinian territories along with an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. This could lead, according to several estimates, to a full-fledged regional war. If this scenario occurs, Jordan will be caught in the middle of a conflict that could serve anyone's interest except his own. This is one of the main reasons that could have led king Abdullah into dissolving the parliament without fixing a date for new elections. The king might be seeking to save his country unchallenged ahead of a huge regional crisis that he anticipates.
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